Historically weak employment outlook for summer 2020

Four out of seven sectors and five out of seven regions record the lowest numbers in 15 years. However, most Swiss employers (56 %) expect to return to prehealth crisis employment levels within a year. The most optimistic among them (28 %) already expect this to happen by the fall. The survey was conducted April 17-29, 2020.

Stability among companies in the domestic market

"As expected, the labor market is suffering greatly from the lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus. The labor market forecast reaches the lowest level since the Barometer was introduced in Switzerland 15 years ago. Nevertheless, employers in certain regions and sectors are showing some stability and sticking to their hiring plans. These are mainly companies with a focus on the domestic market," underlines Gianni Valeri, Managing Director of Manpower Switzerland.

Ticino with weakest employment outlook in 15 years

Employers in six of the seven regions intend to reduce the number of their employees in the third quarter of 2020. Only employers in Eastern Switzerland (+3 %) report a positive forecast and an increase compared to the previous quarter (+4 percentage points). Employers in all other regions are pessimistic: Ticino (-14 %), Northwestern Switzerland (-13 %), the Lake Geneva region (-10 %), the Zurich region (-10 %) and Central Switzerland (-2 %) each report their worst results since the Barometer was launched in Switzerland in 2005. Quarter-over-quarter, Ticino and the Lake Geneva region show the largest declines (-17 and -16 percentage points, respectively). Year-on-year, all regions are down, with Northwestern Switzerland recording the most significant losses (-24 percentage points).

Stable employment momentum in Other manufacturing sectors and Other service sectors

Five of the seven sectors anticipate staff reductions in the summer of 2020, with only two sectors showing a more robust trend. These are Other manufacturing sectors (+1 %) and Other service sectors (0 %). The latter also records little change from the previous quarter (-1 percentage point). By contrast, employers in the Hotels and Restaurants sector (-36 %) are the most pessimistic, with the sector suffering the sharpest quarter-on-quarter (-38 percentage points) and year-on-year (-46 points) declines. Employers also have a negative view of the employment situation in construction (-12 %), manufacturing (-9 %) and financial and business services (-8 %) - delivering the weakest forecast in 15 years.

Employment freeze in the four categories of companies studied

Employers in all four business categories surveyed report negative results for the third quarter of 2020. Large business employers (-3 %) anticipate a sharp slowdown in the labor market, and small business (-4 %) and micro business (-7 %) employers forecast an even more difficult situation. Medium business employers are the most pessimistic (-17 %), posting the largest quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year declines (at -22 and -28 percentage points, respectively).

Employment prospects in neighboring countries: Germany as an exception

Germany is among seven of the 43 countries participating in the survey to report a positive outlook. Nevertheless, German employers (+1 %) anticipate significantly weaker employment momentum in the third quarter of 2020 and, as is the case across the EMEA region, the country's employment outlook declines quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Other service sectors and construction fare best. France (-11 %) shows the lowest figures since the Barometer was launched in the country in 2003 and significant quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year declines. In Italy (-5 %), the most solid labor market is likely to be that of the Other manufacturing sectors in summer 2020.

Source and further information: Manpower Group